Most VIX inversions are over in three sessions. The ones that last are a different market

On 5 November 2026, the VIX closed at 28.18, above VIX3M at 25.55. The front of the curve inverted for the 86th time since December 2007. It closed back below VIX3M on 9 November, after two sessions.

How to read it

The VIX is the 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500, VIX3M the three-month one. In normal times the term structure slopes up and the VIX sits below VIX3M. Since 2007, the VIX has closed above VIX3M on 10% of sessions.

Most are short

Of the 85 previous inversions, 35% were over after one session, 54% within three and 73% within five. The median length is three sessions. By length: 30 episodes lasted one session, 10 lasted two, 6 lasted three, 16 lasted four to five, 10 lasted six to ten, 8 lasted eleven to twenty, and 5 lasted more than twenty.

The ones that last

Of the 23 inversions that lasted more than five sessions, 13 ran past two weeks. Their median length is 12 sessions. The five longest: September to December 2008 (65 sessions), February to April 2020 (43), January to March 2009 (41), July to September 2011 (34) and January to February 2008 (25).

Day-one depth says little

Of the 5 inversions that opened 10% or more deep, 3 ended within two sessions. One lasted 43.

What I watch

Duration, not depth. Past five sessions inverted, I stop reading it as a spike.

Data: VIX and VIX3M closes from FRED, own calculations. The day itself is covered in 5 November 2026: the VIX jumps 70% in one session.