5 November 2026. The VIX closed at 28.18, from 16.61 the day before: +70% in one session, the third-largest one-day jump since 1990, after 5 February 2018 and 18 December 2024. The S&P 500 lost 4.4%, its biggest one-day drop since April 2025.
The curve flipped
The VIX closed above VIX3M, its three-month counterpart: 28.18 against 25.55. On Wednesday 4 November it still sat below, 16.61 against 18.80. When the 30-day point closes above the three-month point, the term structure is inverted: the market pays more for protection now than for protection later.
Two sessions
On Monday 9 November, the VIX closed back below VIX3M, 19.92 against 20.85. The curve stayed inverted for two sessions.
What comes next
How long these inversions usually last, and what changes once they outlive a few sessions, is the subject of the next note: most VIX inversions are over in three sessions.
Data: FRED and index closing levels, own calculations.
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