Since 1999, Europe’s fear gauge, the VSTOXX, has closed above the VIX on 81% of trading days. The premium is the normal state. What matters is when it moves, and which side moved it.
When Europe is the risk, the gap blows out
12 September 2011, at the height of the sovereign debt crisis. The eve of the Brexit result in June 2016. 4 March 2022, a week into the war in Ukraine. Each time, European volatility ran far ahead of American volatility.
When the US is the risk, it flips
5 February 2018, the day of Volmageddon: the V2X closed 18.5 points below the VIX, the widest inversion since 1999. It flipped again on 8 April 2025, in the middle of the US tariff shock.
Check the clock
The V2X closes almost five hours before the VIX. A gap between two closes can be a gap between two different markets. On 9 April 2025, the 90-day tariff pause was announced between the two closes: the spread went from −15.9 to +12.3 points in one session, without Europe doing anything.
Today
The premium was back in 2026, on 81% of days again. On 13 October 2026, the VSTOXX stood at 18.7 against 15.3 for the VIX.
My reading
A signal from this gap only counts once you know which side moved, and at which close.
Data: Cboe via FRED, STOXX, own calculations. Part 2 looks at the only version of this gap you can actually trade: the futures.
For information only. Not an offer or solicitation. Nothing on this site is investment advice or a recommendation.